A dear friend asked if I have read this article last night. The Coming Disruption Scott Galloway predicts a handful of elite cyborg universities will soon monopolize higher education. I hadn’t. However, it is a great read. I recommend it although I don’t agree with it. I could talk about this for hours on so many different fronts.

For starters, over the next two-to-three years about 10%-20% of the colleges in the USA are going under according to rumors I have heard from VIP folks. So if there are 4000 colleges in the USA that means we will lose between 400 – 800 colleges. That is scary!

Here are a couple of random thoughts.

Futurists: I love reading futurist’s predictions. When we look back on history it always makes so much sense; however, when you are going through it, it is always so messy. Very small – often ignored – things can have a HUGE impact. And every futurist article or book starts with a comment such as so and so predicted that something happened before it did. Nevermind, they were wrong on 95% of the stuff. However, I did a quick read up on Scott Galloway, the person named in the article. He seems like a reasonable guy.

This article basically makes the claim that the elite universities will partner with silicon valley and other tech firms to take over the higher education industry. There is something to this. Given a choice between going to some random university or MIT, students may go to MIT because of the brand name. And software capabilities of the tech companies could make high quality education materials that can greatly add to learning in a way that would be mind blowing.

Publishing Challenge: The textbook is dead. Right now, only in one class do I offer a textbook that students have to pay more than $10 for – and that is because of a departmental decision. (MATLAB software is the exception, $99 for MATLAB!! Amazing. >> Python for getting started.) More and more publishing firms are making other types of classroom materials and homework tools. Don’t count them out of this fight – they have a large head start in intellectual property!

Here is a path forward for these publishing companies. Flipped classes. Reach out to elite lecturers and have them develop interactive lectures for class. When you get a textbook, you pay for it as a service which includes lectures, interactive software that supports classroom work, online homework tools, and yes a textbook. Professors, lecturers, and TAs will be asked to lead discussion sections and problem solving workshops on campus; this would give a level playing field for colleges of all levels. Covid-19 will last for a while, but in a year or so something will be figured out and we will be back in person. (The financial problem will last for years.)

If a publishing firm would need an “outrageous” physics lecturer for an initial series, I’m here.

One fish two fish, red fish blue fish: Is it better to be a big fish in a small pond or a small fish in a big pond? Of course it depends. Different people are more successful in different environments. That’s the wonderful thing about people! We are all different, even as corporations try to make us similar. There are going to be people that are going to jump at the opportunity for an online MIT education even if they couldn’t before. In a way it could be an opportunity for naturally brilliant folks who have made some mistakes in life to get back on track.

However, this article underestimates that there are a large number of students that will go towards being a big fish in a small pond. I am a big fish small pond person – it works for me. When you are a small fish in a big pond, sometimes the competition can be so fierce that you are never able to develop your brilliance. (Baseball teams can only have one clean-up hitter.) Small liberal arts college provides opportunities for students to grow into success. Although we will need to make large pushes to make college more of affordable.

Underdog Innovation: Underdogs win when they innovate. If small colleges keep trying to reproduce the model of the large ultra-successful universities and colleges, we will lose badly. We need to change the rules in our benefit. One of the more influential books I have read is David and Goliath by Malcolm Gladwell. Goliath – the elite universities – are going to try to crush us as the featured article suggests. We will need to innovate to survive. Some won’t. But many will. Any time I can call out Paul Quinn College as a successful path, I do. As the nation becomes more national, we need to become even more regional in a way that REALLY connects. There is an opportunity to fill this large gaping hole. Its not how many Noble Prize researchers one generates, it is about how many well-trained nurses a university develops. Community is everything!

Labor Matters: If we really are about to dive into a depression, we must listen to the markets. Millions of people have lost their jobs! Consider how robust a faculty or staff union would be if 20% of the universities in the USA went out of business. There are already swarms of folks (adjuncts, visiting faculty, etc) that are desperately trying to get into full time gigs at universities. It is completely reasonable to think that a really feisty faculty body could be laid off in mass. We would definitely be replaceable.

At the same time, faculty are not being paid enough. Something I have talked about this blog in the past. We need to get paid more. One of the comments to my blog post was that there are some faculty who have to bag groceries to make extra cash???

Here is the solution: Small colleges should move to being solely about the students while this crisis is going on. Research should be student based. Get students working with faculty in the community to make the biggest impact. This is definitely something I believe it and have wrote about it before: Stop Wasting Time Doing Research at Primarily Undergraduate Institutions that isn’t Student Centered. We must optimize faculty efficiency in order to survive.

Many of my peers will be angry with what I am about to say. If you are not working with everything you got (Research over the summer, student mentoring, etc) you should be asked to step down or move to part time. Obviously one doesn’t have to perfect all the time, reasonable vacation time is allowed, etc. However, it is time for ALL HANDS ON DECK!

Flexibility: Flexibility is key. Universities are going to have to think in new ways to survive. We have to go big. There will be risk. It will be scary. There will be mistakes. Most of us – I think – will be fine.